Statistics, project management and error types

I can’t think of a college class that I disliked as much as statistics. It was one of those classes where it made a lot of sense when the professor explained it on the board.

Put a test in front of me though, and I was lost. I would understand it when it was explained, but I couldn’t seem to comprehend it well enough to explain it.

Error Types: Type I and Type II

One thing I do remember from college statistics that made a lot of sense to me, was the two error types you could make. A type I error was the act of assuming that something is true when in fact, it is not. A type II error assumes that something is false when it is true.

This is an everyday occurrence in law enforcement. A police officer can assume a person is guilty when they are actually innocent. Or, the police officer can let someone go, assuming they are innocent, only to find out later that they let the guilty person go free. Although our constitution leans toward the type two error – innocent until proven guilty, the police are very reluctant to let a suspect go until they are sure the person is innocent.

It has become common for the news to report about a prisoner being released after several years of imprisonment because DNA evidence proved them innocent.

While the ramifications are usually much smaller, this is a dilemma nearly every manager runs into. There are several management styles, but I generally find them falling on a spectrum that measures the level of involvement and control a manager employs.

Hands on or hands off?

On one end of the spectrum, a micromanager is involved in many details of everyday work. This allows the manager to be included in virtually every detail so that they don’t miss anything. Unfortunately, they spend so much time being involved in the details that they don’t have the time to spend on their important strategic responsibilities.

On the other end of the spectrum, is the hands off, or laissez-faire management style, in which managers defer all decisions to their staff. This allows them to focus on higher-level, strategic work. The disadvantage of this approach is being unaware of much of the detailed information that would help them make the strategic decisions for which they are responsible.

Related post: How Not Trusting Your Team Kills Productivity

Most managers find themselves somewhere in the middle of that spectrum. Like one’s position on the political spectrum, even if they lean toward one side or the other, they probably believe they are a centrist.

The dilemma

A manager who believes she is at or near the middle of the center has moments where she feels it is important to get involved in the details, and other moments where she trusts her team to make their own decisions.

The manager needs to make the decision of what type of error she is willing to risk. Do I allow the team to make a decision, only to find out later that I should have stepped in and managed? Or, do I make an executive decision here at the risk of making an uninformed decision, and undermining the trust I should have in my team?

A good leader stops and thinks about that dilemma each time she makes a decision. Nobody makes the right call every time. But a good leader makes the correct call more often than not. Over time, the leader’s team members become familiar with the fairness of her approach and assume she will make the right decision.

For more information, check out The Importance of Leadership in Project Management

Conclusion

No project manager wants to become so distant from the details of a project that he is out of touch with its status. But a project manager needs to make sure he trusts his team enough to delegate decision making to the team, without running every decision through the PM.

Which error type do you make more often?

If you would like to learn more about a career in Project Management, get Lew’s book Project Management 101: 101 Tips for Success in Project Management on Amazon.

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